In other words, two-thirds of the revenue will likely be reallocated from other advertiser spend on Google. Only about one-third of the Google Maps ad revenue will be incremental to the company, according to Morgan Stanley. The bankвЂ™s estimate of $1.6 billion of additional Google Maps ad revenue in 2020, compared with this year, assumes that ads will only be shown in around 45 percent of search queries. Morgan Stanley said Google Maps will attract both local and national - international, actually - as well as branded ad dollars even if maps wonвЂ™t bombard users with advertisements. But, as Google Maps unveils its new advertising products on desktop and mobile, itвЂ™s clearly on an upward trajectory as a money machine and as a gateway to other Google businesses, such Google Hotels, Google Flights (on desktop), restaurants, and shopping. Some $3 billion in advertising revenue today - or even $11 billion four years from now - is a proverbial drop in the bucket for Alphabet, GoogleвЂ™s parent, which raked in $116 billion in advertising revenue last year. In the Skift deep dive Google Maps Is Ready to Transform the World of Superapps, we estimated that Google Maps was a several-billion-dollar business (Morgan Stanley estimated maps will generate $2.95 billion in revenue for Google in 2019), as it becomes an all-encompassing utility for navigation, mass transit options, and вЂњnear meвЂќ searches for hotels, restaurants, spas, and retail outlets. вЂњWith 1 billion-plus users, Google Maps is a utility-like service (similar to Search) and in our view, remains the most under-monetized asset that we cover,вЂќ the research note said.

Morgan Stanley estimates that Google Maps revenue, both from desktop local search ($1.23 billion) and mobile ($9.82 billion) will total more than $11 billion in 2023. New travel products, as well as augmented reality features and promoted pins that show the location of a business within Google Maps вЂњare likely to further increase Google MapsвЂ™ user utility and monetization potential,вЂќ according to the research note.ДЄnd thatвЂ™s just the start. Some of Google MapsвЂ™ advertising products are expected to come out of beta in the fourth quarter and into 2020, leading Alphabet to grow its maps revenue 64 percent to $4.86 billion in 2020, Nowack projected. ThatвЂ™s all about to change, according to a research note from Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowack.

With more than a billion users, itвЂ™s hard to think of Google Maps as a fledgling business, but it is, relatively speaking, in terms of its efforts to rake in big money.

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